The Basic Idea
As the world of behavioral science continues to attract the attention of organizations in both the public and private sector, the term “bias” has become commonplace. There are a number of heuristics, biases, and fallacies that have cropped up in the media and popular science, arguably bringing the concept to buzzword status. In addition to prominence, it can also seem like there are simply too many biases to keep track of: Wikipedia’s list of cognitive biases contains nearly 200 entries. In order to prevent potential information overload, it can help to step back and take a high-level view of cognitive bias to better understand why all these bizarre effects might occur in the first place.
For starters, a bias is essentially a structured error in mental processing that leads to a conclusion that goes against formal logic or normative rationality. In other words, it is the thinking that can lead one astray; a psychological blind spot.
The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.
– Daniel Kahneman
