Why do we favor our existing beliefs?

The 

Confirmation Bias

, explained.
Bias

What is confirmation bias?

The confirmation bias describes our underlying tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to evidence that fits with our existing beliefs.

An illustration of two stick figures. The figure on the left, under a sun, is smiling and saying, "Did you read my paper on confirmation bias?" The figure on the right responds, "Yes, but it only proved what I already knew..." Between them is a blackboard with the Bayesian probability formula: P(A|B) = [P(B|A)P(A)] / P(B).

Where this bias occurs

Consider the following hypothetical situation: Jane is the manager of a local coffee shop. She is a firm believer in the motto, “hard work equals success.” The coffee shop, however, has seen a slump in sales over the past few months. Since Jane strongly believes that “hard work” is a means to success, she concludes that the dip in the coffee shop’s sales is because her staff is not working hard enough. To account for this, Jane puts several measures in place to ensure that her staff is working consistently. Consequently, she ends up spending more money by having a greater number of employees staffed on a shift, exceeding the shop’s budget and thus contributing to overall losses.

Consulting with other business owners in her area, Jane is able to identify her store’s new, less visible location as the primary cause of her sales slump. Her belief in hard work as the most important metric of success led her to mistakenly identify employees’ lack of effort as the reason for the store’s falling revenue while ignoring evidence that pointed to the true cause: the shop’s poor location. Jane has fallen victim to confirmation bias, which caused her to notice and give greater credence to evidence that fits with her pre-existing beliefs.

As this example illustrates, our personal beliefs can weigh us down when conflicting information is present. Not only does it stop us from finding a solution, but we also may not even be able to identify the problem to begin with.  

Sources

  1. Healy, P. (2016, August 18). Confirmation bias: How it affects your organization and how to overcome it. Business Insights Blog. https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/confirmation-bias-how-it-affects-your-organization-and-how-to-overcome-it 
  2. Ling, R. (2020). Confirmation bias in the era of mobile news consumption: The social and psychological dimensions. Digital Journalism, 8(5), 596–604. https://doi.org/10.1080/21670811.2020.1766987
  3. Hastall, M. R. (2020). Selective exposure, perception, and retention. The SAGE International Encyclopedia of Mass Media and Society, 1–5, 1537–1539. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781483375519  
  4. Schlosser, J. A. (2013). “Hope, danger’s comforter”: Thucydides, hope, politics. The Journal of Politics, 75(1), 169–182. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381612000941 
  5. Badcock, C. (2012, May 5). Making sense of wason. Psychology Today. https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/the-imprinted-brain/201205/making-sense-wason 
  6. Lord, C. G., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1979). Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(11), 2098–2109. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.2098 
  7. Pariser, E. (2012). The filter bubble: What the internet is hiding from you. Penguin Books. 

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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