Why do unpredictable events only seem predictable after they occur?

The 

Hindsight Bias

, explained.
Bias

What is the Hindsight Bias?

The hindsight bias describes our tendency to look back at an unpredictable event and think it was easily predictable. Also called the “knew-it-all-along” effect, this bias occurs when our current knowledge of an event’s outcome influences our perception of past decisions or judgements, causing us to overestimate our ability to predict future events.

Two stick figures stand on an orange ground, looking up at a crashing yellow plane with smoke trailing from it. A speech bubble from one figure reads, 'Even though we helped him build it, I always knew it was a bad idea,'. In the background, another stick figure is parachuting down, indicating they were in the plane.

Where this bias occurs

Consider this hypothetical: John and Jane have a fantastic relationship. They are madly in love and even have plans to move in together in a few months—at least that’s what John thinks.

One day after work, John receives a message from Jane: “We need to talk.” Suddenly, he gets worried. Is everything alright? Does Jane still love him? After all, he did pick up on some tension between them over the last few weeks. When they talk later that day, John learns that Jane is not so happy with the relationship. She needs a break from John.

He knew it! John tells himself and his friends. Now that he looks back at his relationship with Jane, he saw many signs that pointed to trouble: canceled plans, awkwardness, being ignored by her friends, and so forth. He had known it all along, and so this bad news from Jane was actually no surprise to him.

This is the hindsight bias at work. An unforeseen break-up becomes foreseeable to John only after it takes place. He overestimates his ability to have predicted the end of his relationship with Jane once the relationship is suddenly over.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Cherry, K. (2020, May 06). How Hindsight Bias Affects How We View the Past. Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hindsight-bias-2795236
  2. Samson, A. (2017). The Behavioral Economics Guide 2017. Behavioral Science Solutions.
  3. 'I Knew It All Along...Didn't I?' – Understanding Hindsight Bias. (2012, September 06). Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.psychologicalscience.org/news/releases/i-knew-it-all-along-didnt-i-understanding-hindsight-bias.html
  4. Cherry, K. (2020, May 06). How Hindsight Bias Affects How We View the Past. Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hindsight-bias-2795236
  5. Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight Bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(5), 411-426. doi:10.1177/1745691612454303
  6. Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight Bias. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 7(5), 411-426. doi:10.1177/1745691612454303
  7. How a Decision Journal Changed the Way I make Decisions. (2020, May 05). Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://fs.blog/2014/02/decision-journal/
  8. Bernstein, D., Aßfalg A., Kumar, R, & Ackerman, R. (2016). Looking backward and forward on hindsight bias. Handbook of Metamemory (pp. 289-304). Oxford.
  9. Dietrich, D., & Olson, M. (1993). A Demonstration of Hindsight Bias Using the Thomas Confirmation Vote. Psychological Reports, 72(2), 377-378. doi:10.2466/pr0.1993.72.2.377
  10. Cherry, K. (2020, May 06). How Hindsight Bias Affects How We View the Past. Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-a-hindsight-bias-2795236
  11. ​​Bernstein, D. M., Erdfelder, E., Meltzoff, A. N., Peria, W., & Loftus, G. R. (2011). Hindsight Bias from 3 to 95 Years of Age. Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37(2), 378. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0021971
  12. Groß, J., Blank, H., & Bayen, U. J. (2017). Hindsight Bias in Depression. Clinical Psychological Science. https://doi.org/10.1177/2167702617712262
  13. Harley, E. M., Carlsen, K. A., & Loftus, G. R. (2004). The "saw-it-all-along" effect: demonstrations of visual hindsight bias. Journal of experimental psychology. Learning, memory, and cognition, 30(5), 960–968. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.30.5.960
  14. Oeberst, A., & Goeckenjan, I. (2016). When being wise after the event results in injustice: Evidence for hindsight bias in judges’ negligence assessments. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 22(3), 271–279. DOI:10.1037/law0000091
  15. Birch, S. A. J., & Bernstein, D. M. (2007). What can children tell us about hindsight bias: A fundamental constraint on perspective-taking? Social Cognition, 25(1), 98–113. https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.98
  16. He, G., Kuiper, L., & Gadiraju, U. (2023). Knowing about knowing: An illusion of human competence can hinder appropriate reliance on AI systems. CHI '23: Proceedings of the 2023 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems, Article No. 113, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1145/3544548.3581025 
  17. Geissmar, J., Niemand, T., & Kraus, S. (2023). Surprisingly unsustainable: How and when hindsight biases shape consumer evaluations of unsustainable and sustainable products. Business Strategy and the Environment, 32(8), 5969-5991. https://doi.org/10.1002/bse.3468

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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