The Basic Idea
Imagine you have plans with your friend to go grab a drink after work. A couple of hours before, you get one of the following texts:
Text A: Sorry to do this, but my stomach is feeling weird and I have a bit of a fever and don’t think I’m up for a drink. I also think I’ll be staying at the office later than expected because I was just assigned to this huge project. My grandma also hasn’t been doing so well recently so if I do have spare time I should go check in on her. Can we reschedule drinks?
Text B: Hey, my stomach is feeling a little weird. Can we reschedule drinks?
Despite the fact that Text A has more precise details, we are likely to feel annoyed by the overwhelming amount of information and excuses our friend is presenting. Text B is a simple explanation and gets straight to the point, making us more likely to believe and accept it.
It turns out, even when it comes to more complex matters - like scientific theories or philosophical dilemmas - we tend to favor the simple explanation over the complicated one. This rule of thumb is known as Occam’s razor, and helps us eliminate overly elaborate theories as they are impenetrable and hard to prove or disprove.1 However, it is important to note that favoring the simpler explanation does not mean it is true. It is simply a heuristic that helps guide philosophers, scientists and policymakers on how best to approach a phenomenon.
You gave too much rein to your imagination. Imagination is a good servant, and a bad master. The simplest explanation is always the most likely.
– Agatha Christie, in her detective novel, The Mysterious Affair at Styles2
