Why do we think we have more control over the world than we do?

The 

Illusion of Control

, explained.
Bias

What is the Illusion of Control?

The illusion of control describes how we believe we have greater control over events than we actually do. Even when something is a matter of random chance, we often feel like we’re able to influence it in some way.

Three stick figures standing under a dark storm cloud with lightning and rain. The stick figure on the left is saying, "Sorry, I made it rain... stepped on an ant," while the figure on the right responds with, "How could you?!". The image humorously depicts the illusion that one can control or influence external events, like the weather, through their actions.

Where it occurs

You and your family are going to watch your favorite soccer team in the league championship match. As always, your dad wears his “lucky” jersey in the team’s colors. It’s a little small on him these days, but he insists on wearing it, because he thinks it will boost the team’s chances of winning.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Cowley, E., Briley, D. A., & Farrell, C. (2015). How do gamblers maintain an illusion of control? Journal of Business Research, 68(10), 2181-2188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.018
  2. Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311-328. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311
  3. Glass, D. C., Reim, B., & Singer, J. E. (1971). Behavioral consequences of adaptation to controllable and uncontrollable noise. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 7(2), 244-257. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(71)90070-9
  4. Miller, W. R., & Seligman, M. E. (1975). Depression and learned helplessness in man. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 84(3), 228-238. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0076720
  5. Optimism bias. (2019, August 22). The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/optimism-bias/
  6. Dunning–Kruger effect. (2020, July 22). The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect/
  7. Ackerman, C. E. (2019, April 7). Pollyanna principle: The psychology of positivity bias. PositivePsychology.com. https://positivepsychology.com/pollyanna-principle/
  8. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.
  9. Lopez-Gonzalez, H., Estévez, A., & Griffiths, M. D. (2017). Controlling the illusion of control: A grounded theory of sports betting advertising in the UK. International Gambling Studies, 18(1), 39-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2017.1377747
  10. Fenton-O’Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., Soane, E., & Willman, P. (2003). Trading on illusions: Unrealistic perceptions of control and trading performance. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 76(1), 53-68. https://doi.org/10.1348/096317903321208880
  11. Matute, H., Blanco, F., Yarritu, I., Díaz-Lago, M., Vadillo, M. A., & Barberia, I. (2015). Illusions of causality: How they bias our everyday thinking and how they could be reduced. Frontiers in Psychology, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00888
  12. Lovallo, D., & Kahneman, D. (2003, July). Delusions of success: How optimism undermines executives’ decisions. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2003/07/delusions-of-success-how-optimism-undermines-executives-decisions
  13. PlaySmart. (n.d.). Lottery odds. OLG PlaySmart – Gambling Facts, Tools and Advice. https://www.playsmart.ca/lottery-instant-games/lottery/odds/
  14. Mele, C. (2016, October 27). Pushing That Crosswalk Button May Make You Feel Better, but …. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/us/placebo-buttons-elevators-crosswalks.html
  15. Rudski, J. (2004). The illusion of control, superstitious belief, and optimism. Current Psychology, 22(4), 306-315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-004-1036-8
  16. Plante, S. G. (2019, October 23). “It’s just a big illusion”: How homeopathy went from fringe medicine to the grocery aisles. Vox. https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/10/16/20910346/homeopathic-homeopathy-holistic-alternative-medicine-oscillococcinum-history

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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