Why do we believe our horoscopes?

The 

Barnum Effect

, explained.
Bias

What is the Barnum effect?

The Barnum effect, also commonly referred to as the Forer Effect, describes when individuals believe that generic information, which could apply to anyone, applies specifically to themselves.1

An illustration showing one stick figure saying, "I see you sometimes judge yourself," and another figure responding in surprise, "OMG, how did you know?" The text "Barnum Effect" is displayed at the top.

Where this bias occurs

Examples of the Barnum effect are everywhere. Have you read your daily horoscope and noticed how strangely accurate the prediction was? After all, you did receive words of wisdom and reconnect with an old friend today, just as Co–Star said you would.

Even though it is well known that horoscopes are intentionally vague to appeal to as many people as possible, some are still amazed at how perfectly these descriptions apply to themselves. The Barnum effect tricks us into believing that a particular horoscope was meant for just us, encouraging us to find nonexistent parallels between the text and our own lives.

Beyond astrology, people working in “New Age” professions, such as tarot card readers, magicians, and psychics, are notorious for employing the Barnum effect to convince customers of their predictions. 

Sources

  1. Vohs, Kathleen D. “Barnum effect,” Encyclopædia Britannica 2016.
  2. Oakes, K. (2018, April 26). The Barnum effect explains how horoscopes can sound scarily accurate. Retrieved from https://inews.co.uk/news/science/Barnum-effect-Forer-horoscopes-accurate-148436
  3. Marks, D. F. (2006). Biased beliefs and the subjective validation effect. The Power of Belief, 21-32. doi:10.1093/med:psych/9780198530114.003.0002
  4. McFadden, C. (2019, May 16). The Power of Compliments: Uncovering the Barnum effect. Retrieved from https://interestingengineering.com/the-power-of-compliments-uncovering-the-Barnum-effect
  5. Jones, C. (2014, February 14). The Pollyanna Phenomenon and Non-Inferiority: How Our Experience (and Research) Can Lead to Poor Treatment Choices. Retrieved from https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/the-pollyanna-phenomenon-and-non-inferiority-how-our-experience-and-research-can-lead-to-poor-treatment-choices/
  6. Forer, B. R. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44(1), 118-123. doi:10.1037/h0059240
  7. Forer, B. R. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44(1), 118-123. doi:10.1037/h0059240
  8. Jarus, O. (2012, January 16). Good Heavens! Oldest-Known Astrologer’s Board Discovered. Retrieved from https://www.livescience.com/17943-oldest-astrologer-board-zodiac.html
  9. Waxman, O. B. (2018, June 21). Are Zodiac Signs Real? Here’s the History Behind Horoscopes. Retrieved from https://time.com/5315377/are-zodiac-signs-real-astrology-history/
  10. Bluestone, G. (2018, August 21). Susan Miller Always Has a Story for You. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/21/style/susan-miller-astrology-zone.html

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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