The Science Behind the Barnum Effect
Have you ever believed in a Horoscope?
Many years back, before international travel became as common as it is today and before I even had a passport, a fortune-teller prophesied that I would be traveling a lot between 2014 and 2018. He was so specific that I just could not ignore the prediction. So, I diligently stood in a long queue and went through the whole (somewhat tedious) process of getting a passport.
To be fair to the fortune-teller, he was not entirely wrong. Come 2014, I got married and moved to a different city from where my head office was — and as a result, I ended up traveling every week to the head office for work. This was all within India. Did I use my passport? Unfortunately, not as much as I imagined I would.
The fortune-teller made a generic statement. What young, fresh graduate does not want to believe he or she will travel? It was a safe prophecy to make. Full marks to him!
What is it about predictions, fortunes, and horoscopes that make us want to believe them? As it turns out, it is less to do with astrology and more to do with psychology.
References
- https://www.harpersbazaar.com.au/celebrity/how-princess-margaret-birth-invented-the-horoscope-15584
- Vohs, Kathleen D. “Barnum Effect,” Encyclopædia Britannica 2016.
- Meehl, P. E. (1956). Wanted—a good cook-book. American Psychologist, 11(6), 263.
- https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/jan/19/dailymail.pressandpublishing
- https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/view-dave-trott-i-blog-post-future/1396146
- Forer, B. R. (1949). The fallacy of personal validation: a classroom demonstration of gullibility. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 44(1), 118.
- Johnson, J. T., Cain, L. M., Falke, T. L., Hayman, J., & Perillo, E. (1985). The” Barnum effect” revisited: Cognitive and motivational factors in the acceptance of personality descriptions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49(5), 1378.
- https://www.livescience.com/17943-oldest-astrologer-board-zodiac.html
About the Author
Preeti Kotamarthi
Preeti Kotamarthi is the Behavioral Science Lead at Grab, the leading ride-hailing and mobile payments app in South East Asia. She has set up the behavioral practice at the company, helping product and design teams understand customer behavior and build better products. She completed her Masters in Behavioral Science from the London School of Economics and her MBA in Marketing from FMS Delhi. With more than 6 years of experience in the consumer products space, she has worked in a range of functions, from strategy and marketing to consulting for startups, including co-founding a startup in the rural space in India. Her main interest lies in popularizing behavioral design and making it a part of the product conceptualization process.
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