Why do we think we’re destined to fail?

Pessimism bias

, explained.
Bias

What is the Pessimism bias?

The pessimism bias refers to the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events while underestimating the likelihood of positive events. This attitude of expecting the worst is a prominent cognitive feature of depression and can have considerable ramifications on both a personal and societal level.

Where it occurs

Did you ever have a studious friend in school who thought they were going to fail every exam? What about someone who thinks everyone dislikes them? We often label this a glass-half-empty perspective, as garden variety pessimism, rather than a nuanced psychological phenomenon. Fortunately, there is a breadth of research that can help shine a light on such dark perceptions.

The realm of pessimism can play out in our beliefs about ourselves and of society, with the inclinations behind these beliefs sometimes leading us astray. The brain does not always have access to accurate predictions of the future, or the ability to mentally calculate them, so we often rely on how we feel about a future event. If we’re depressed, fearful, or hopeless about a prospect, these feelings may seep into our estimations and expectations.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Mansour, S. B., Jouini, E., & Napp, C. (2006). Is there a “pessimistic” bias in individual beliefs? Evidence from a simple survey. Theory and Decision, 61(4), 345-362.
  2. Roser, M., & Nagdy, M. (2014). Optimism and Pessimism. Our World in Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-pessimism
  3. Pinker, S. (2015). The Psychology of Pessimism. Cato’s Letter, (13), 1-7.
  4. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
  5. Sharot, T., Riccardi, A. M., Raio, C. M., & Phelps, E. A. (2007). Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature, 450(7166), 102-105.
  6. Strunk, D. R., Lopez, H., & DeRubeis, R. J. (2006). Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events. Behaviour research and therapy, 44(6), 861-882.
  7. Chang, E. C., Asakawa, K., & Sanna, L. J. (2001). Cultural variations in optimistic and pessimistic bias: Do Easterners really expect the worst and Westerners really expect the best when predicting future life events?. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81(3), 476.
  8. Bates, T. C. (2015). The glass is half full and half empty: A population-representative twin study testing if optimism and pessimism are distinct systems. The journal of positive psychology, 10(6), 533-542.
  9. Norem, J. K., & Illingworth, K. S. (1993). Strategy-dependent effects of reflecting on self and tasks: Some implications of optimism and defensive pessimism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65(4), 822.
  10. Kruger, J. (1999). Lake Wobegon be gone! The" below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. Journal of personality and social psychology, 77(2), 221.
  11. Beck, A. T. (1967). Depression: Clinical, Experimental, and Theoretical Aspects. New York, NY: Hoeber Medical Division.
  12. Alloy, L. B., & Ahrens, A. H. (1987). Depression and pessimism for the future: biased use of statistically relevant information in predictions for self versus others. Journal of personality and social psychology, 52(2), 366.

About the Authors

A man in a blue, striped shirt smiles while standing indoors, surrounded by green plants and modern office decor.

Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

A smiling man stands in an office, wearing a dark blazer and black shirt, with plants and glass-walled rooms in the background.

Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

About us

We are the leading applied research & innovation consultancy

Our insights are leveraged by the most ambitious organizations

Image

“

I was blown away with their application and translation of behavioral science into practice. They took a very complex ecosystem and created a series of interventions using an innovative mix of the latest research and creative client co-creation. I was so impressed at the final product they created, which was hugely comprehensive despite the large scope of the client being of the world's most far-reaching and best known consumer brands. I'm excited to see what we can create together in the future.

Heather McKee

BEHAVIORAL SCIENTIST

GLOBAL COFFEEHOUSE CHAIN PROJECT

OUR CLIENT SUCCESS

$0M

Annual Revenue Increase

By launching a behavioral science practice at the core of the organization, we helped one of the largest insurers in North America realize $30M increase in annual revenue.

0%

Increase in Monthly Users

By redesigning North America's first national digital platform for mental health, we achieved a 52% lift in monthly users and an 83% improvement on clinical assessment.

0%

Reduction In Design Time

By designing a new process and getting buy-in from the C-Suite team, we helped one of the largest smartphone manufacturers in the world reduce software design time by 75%.

0%

Reduction in Client Drop-Off

By implementing targeted nudges based on proactive interventions, we reduced drop-off rates for 450,000 clients belonging to USA's oldest debt consolidation organizations by 46%

Let's chat

Read Next

Planning Fallacy

Why do we underestimate how long it will take to complete a task?

Why do we underestimate how long it will take to complete a task?

Learn More

Primacy Effect

Why do we only remember the first things on our grocery list?

Why do we only remember the first things on our grocery list?

Learn More

Priming

Why do some ideas prompt other ideas later on without our conscious awareness?

Why do some ideas prompt other ideas later on without our conscious awareness?

Learn More
See All
Notes illustration

Eager to learn about how behavioral science can help your organization?

Contact us