Why do we think we’re destined to fail?

The 

Pessimism bias

, explained.
Bias

What is the Pessimism bias?

The pessimism bias refers to the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of negative events while underestimating the likelihood of positive events. This attitude of expecting the worst is a prominent cognitive feature of depression and can have considerable ramifications on both a personal and societal level.

Where it occurs

Did you ever have a studious friend in school who thought they were going to fail every exam? What about someone who thinks everyone dislikes them? We often label this a glass-half-empty perspective, as garden variety pessimism, rather than a nuanced psychological phenomenon. Fortunately, there is a breadth of research that can help shine a light on such dark perceptions.

The realm of pessimism can play out in our beliefs about ourselves and of society, with the inclinations behind these beliefs sometimes leading us astray. The brain does not always have access to accurate predictions of the future, or the ability to mentally calculate them, so we often rely on how we feel about a future event. If we’re depressed, fearful, or hopeless about a prospect, these feelings may seep into our estimations and expectations.

Sources

  1. Mansour, S. B., Jouini, E., & Napp, C. (2006). Is there a “pessimistic” bias in individual beliefs? Evidence from a simple survey. Theory and Decision, 61(4), 345-362.
  2. Roser, M., & Nagdy, M. (2014). Optimism and Pessimism. Our World in Data. Retrieved from https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-pessimism
  3. Pinker, S. (2015). The Psychology of Pessimism. Cato’s Letter, (13), 1-7.
  4. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806.
  5. Sharot, T., Riccardi, A. M., Raio, C. M., & Phelps, E. A. (2007). Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature, 450(7166), 102-105.
  6. Strunk, D. R., Lopez, H., & DeRubeis, R. J. (2006). Depressive symptoms are associated with unrealistic negative predictions of future life events. Behaviour research and therapy, 44(6), 861-882.
  7. Chang, E. C., Asakawa, K., & Sanna, L. J. (2001). Cultural variations in optimistic and pessimistic bias: Do Easterners really expect the worst and Westerners really expect the best when predicting future life events?. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81(3), 476.
  8. Bates, T. C. (2015). The glass is half full and half empty: A population-representative twin study testing if optimism and pessimism are distinct systems. The journal of positive psychology, 10(6), 533-542.
  9. Norem, J. K., & Illingworth, K. S. (1993). Strategy-dependent effects of reflecting on self and tasks: Some implications of optimism and defensive pessimism. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65(4), 822.
  10. Kruger, J. (1999). Lake Wobegon be gone! The" below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments. Journal of personality and social psychology, 77(2), 221.
  11. Beck, A. T. (1967). Depression: Clinical, Experimental, and Theoretical Aspects. New York, NY: Hoeber Medical Division.
  12. Alloy, L. B., & Ahrens, A. H. (1987). Depression and pessimism for the future: biased use of statistically relevant information in predictions for self versus others. Journal of personality and social psychology, 52(2), 366.

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