Risk as Feelings Theory
The Basic Idea
Humans are risk averse: the potential of losing something can dissuade us from engaging in particular behaviors. On the surface, our desire to avoid risky behavior seems rational. Why would we put ourselves in situations that could lead to negative outcomes? However, we perceive more risk than there actually is, and we react with more aversion than is warranted. Our fear of loss can cloud our judgment and impede our decision-making.
It is likely you are more scared of flying on a plane than riding in a car. One study found that between 33% and 40% of people experience anxiety when it comes to flying – a huge proportion of the population – but there is very little risk in plane travel. Between 2012-2016, the chances of dying on a plane were one in 3.37 billion. Even if a plane crashes, over 98% of crashes do not result in a fatality.1 Let’s compare those statistics to the statistics of car crashes: A report by Esurance, an auto insurance company, found that the odds of getting into a car crash during a 1000-mile trip is 1 in 366.2 Far more dangerous than flying! In fact, in 2019, it was found that the odds of dying in a car-crash was 1 in 107 in the U.S., whereas there were too few deaths reported for plane-crash deaths to even calculate the odds.3
The decision to avoid the perceived risk of flying and instead make your journey a road trip is not a rational decision. Emotions like anxiety and fear are powerful enough to diminish our rational decision-making abilities and make us choose a more dangerous mode of transportation. Emotions that influence our decision-making processes constitute a phenomenon known as the risk as feelings theory.
Even people who are not suffering from full-blown phobias commonly experience powerful fears about outcomes that they recognize as highly unlikely (such as airplane crashes) or not objectively terrible (such as public speaking); in contrast, many experience little fear about hazards that are both more likely and probably more severe (such as car accidents).
– George Loewenstein, pioneer of behavioral science, in his paper “Risk as Feelings”4
