COVID-19 and the Science of Risk Perception
Throughout this coronavirus pandemic, mainstream media, national governments, and official health organizations have been broadly united in their recognition of COVID-19 as a serious threat to public health. This apparent consensus, however, belies the level of disagreement within national populations.
From conspiracy theorists who reject the very existence of the virus on one end,6 to people suffering from the debilitating effects of COVID-19-related health anxiety on the other,7 people’s perceptions of the risk posed by COVID-19 vary enormously.
As governments try to balance controlling the spread of the virus against keeping their economies moving, rates of infection are steadily rising. Controlling infection while keeping riskier sectors of the economy open (such as hospitality) depends in large part on public compliance with behavioral measures designed to control the virus.
While behavioral science has uncovered many determinants of behavior beyond beliefs, attitudes, and intentions, it remains true that people who perceive lower risk from a hazard devote less energy to mitigating that risk. This has been borne out in recent research showing that people engage more in protective behaviors, such as handwashing and physical distancing, as their perceptions of COVID-19 health risks go up.4
This highlights why it’s important that risk perceptions towards COVID-19 aren’t radically out of step with the best available science. Highly skewed perceptions of COVID-19 risk within a significant portion of a population could undermine efforts to keep infection rates under control.
References
- Allen, J. N. L., Arechar, A. A., Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2020, October 1). Scaling Up Fact-Checking Using the Wisdom of Crowds. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/9qdza
- Barker, D. C. (2005). Values, Frames, and Persuasion in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Political Behavior, 27, 375–394.
- Chebat, J., & Filiatrault, P. (1987). Credibility, source identification and message acceptance: The case of political persuasion. Political Communication, 4(3), 153–160.
- Dryhurst, S., Schneider, C. R., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L. J., Recchia, G., van der Bles, A. M., Spiegelhalter, D., & van der Linden, S. (2020). Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world. Journal of Risk Research, 1–13.
- Giles, C., & Robinson, O. (2020). Coronavirus: The US has not reduced its Covid-19 death toll to 6% of total. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53999403
- Grudz, A., & Mai, P. (2020). Conspiracy theorists are falsely claiming that the coronavirus pandemic is an elaborate hoax. https://theconversation.com/conspiracy-theorists-are-falsely-claiming-that-the-coronavirus-pandemic-is-an-elaborate-hoax-135985
- Jungmann, S. M., & Witthöft, M. (2020). Health anxiety, cyberchondria, and coping in the current COVID-19 pandemic: Which factors are related to coronavirus anxiety?. Journal of anxiety disorders, 73,
- Kahan, D. M. (2012). Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk. In S. Roeser, R. Hillerbrand, P. Sandin, & M. Peterson (Eds.), Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics and Social Implications of Risk (pp. 725-759). London: Springer.
- Kahan, D. M., Jenkins-Smith, H., Tarantola, T., Silva, C. L., & Braman, D. (2015). Geoengineering and Climate Change Polarization. The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 658(1), 192–222.
- Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological bulletin, 108(3), 480-98 .
- Lord, C. G., & Taylor, C. A. (2009). Biased assimilation: Effects of assumptions and expectations on the interpretation of new evidence. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 3(5), 827–841.
- Pennycook, G., McPhetres, J., Zhang, Y., Lu, J.G., Rand, D.G. (2020). Fighting COVID-19 Misinformation on Social Media: Experimental Evidence for a Scalable Accuracy-Nudge Intervention. Psychological Science, 31(7), 770-780.
- Taber, C., & Lodge, M. (2006). Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs. American Journal of Political Science, 50(3), 755-769.
- World Health Organisation. (2020). Managing the COVID-19 infodemic: Promoting healthy behaviours and mitigating the harm from misinformation and disinformation. https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-09-2020-managing-the-covid-19-infodemic-promoting-healthy-behaviours-and-mitigating-the-harm-from-misinformation-and-disinformation
About the Author
Joshua Bromley
Joshua Bromley is a freelance writer focused on communicating insights from behavioural science and positive psychology. He has a particular interest in how findings from these fields can be applied to business practice and public policy to improve outcomes. He holds a PhD in social psychology from Cardiff University (UK). His doctoral thesis examined the factors which shape people’s perceptions of societal risks, ranging from climate change to terrorism.
About us
We are the leading applied research & innovation consultancy
Our insights are leveraged by the most ambitious organizations
“
I was blown away with their application and translation of behavioral science into practice. They took a very complex ecosystem and created a series of interventions using an innovative mix of the latest research and creative client co-creation. I was so impressed at the final product they created, which was hugely comprehensive despite the large scope of the client being of the world's most far-reaching and best known consumer brands. I'm excited to see what we can create together in the future.
Heather McKee
BEHAVIORAL SCIENTIST
GLOBAL COFFEEHOUSE CHAIN PROJECT
OUR CLIENT SUCCESS
$0M
Annual Revenue Increase
By launching a behavioral science practice at the core of the organization, we helped one of the largest insurers in North America realize $30M increase in annual revenue.
0%
Increase in Monthly Users
By redesigning North America's first national digital platform for mental health, we achieved a 52% lift in monthly users and an 83% improvement on clinical assessment.
0%
Reduction In Design Time
By designing a new process and getting buy-in from the C-Suite team, we helped one of the largest smartphone manufacturers in the world reduce software design time by 75%.
0%
Reduction in Client Drop-Off
By implementing targeted nudges based on proactive interventions, we reduced drop-off rates for 450,000 clients belonging to USA's oldest debt consolidation organizations by 46%
