Why do we tend to think that things that happened recently are more likely to happen again?

The 

Availability Heuristic

, explained.
Bias

What is the availability heuristic?

The availability heuristic describes our tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly and easily when making decisions about the future.

The image features a large yellow circle labeled "THINGS HAPPENING IN THE WORLD." A small red circle labeled "C" is located inside the large circle. To the right of the yellow circle, a stick figure is standing and holding up a speech bubble that says, "I HAVE THE ALL TRUTH." Above the stick figure, the words "AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC" and "We focus on..." are partially visible.

Where this bias occurs

Imagine you are a manager considering either John or Jane, two employees at your company, for a promotion. Both have a steady employment record, though Jane has been the highest performer in her department during her tenure. However, in Jane’s first year, she accidentally deleted a company project when her computer crashed. With this incident in mind, you decide to promote John instead.

In this hypothetical scenario, the vivid memory of Jane losing that file likely weighed more heavily on your decision than it should have. This unequal evaluation is due to the availability heuristic, which suggests that singular memorable moments have an outsized influence on decisions when compared to less memorable ones.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. A Neural network framework for cognitive biases, by J.E. (Hans) Korteling, A.-M. Brouwer, A. Toet, Frontiers of Psychology (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6129743/)
  2. Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability.” Cognitive Psychology 5, no. 2 (1973): 207–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9.
  3. Tversky, Amos, and Daniel Kahneman. "Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment." Psychological Review 90, no. 4 (1983), 293-315. doi:10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293.
  4. Mason, Betsy. “Making People Aware of Their Implicit Biases Doesn't Usually Change Minds. But Here's What Does Work.” PBS, 10 June 2020.
  5. Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2015.
  6. See 1
  7. Samson, Alain. The Behavioral Economics Guide 2017 (with an introduction by Cass Sunstein). Retrieved from https://www.behavioraleconomics.com
  8. “LOTTO 6/49 Odds & Payouts.” OLG. https://lottery.olg.ca/en-ca/lotto-games/lotto-649/lotto-649-odds-and-payouts.
  9. Eisenman, Russell. "Belief that drug usage in the United States is increasing when it is really decreasing: An example of the availability heuristic." Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society 31, no. 4 (1993), 249-252. doi:10.3758/bf03334920.
  10.  Tyler, Tom R., and Fay L. Cook. "The mass media and judgments of risk: Distinguishing impact on personal and societal level judgments." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 47, no. 4 (1984), 693-708. doi:10.1037/0022-3514.47.4.693.
  11. Logan, Nick. “Trans People Already Fighting for Rights in Tennessee Have a New Fear in the Wake of a Tragedy | CBC News.” CBCnews, 1 Apr. 2023, www.cbc.ca/news/world/nashville-shooting-transgender-rights-1.6797599. 

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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