Intro
We make predictions about the possible outcomes of certain actions in order to inform our decision-making. This seems like an effective process until you realize that most of us are unable to accurately foresee the outcomes of our choices. It was psychologist Philip Tetlock who demonstrated that, generally, the accuracy of our predictions is no better than chance, which means that flipping a coin is just as good as our best guess. Tetlock also realized that certain people are able to make predictions far more accurately than the general population. He dubbed these people “superforecasters”.
Tetlock is a psychology professor and researcher who is fascinated by decision-making processes and the attributes required for good judgment. His career has had a major impact on decision-making processes worldwide, as his discovery of superforecasters has enabled him to uncover the attributes and methodologies necessary for making accurate predictions. Through consultations and workshops, Tetlock and his colleagues have been working to improve decision-making by promoting the qualities necessary to accurately foresee the outcomes of certain decisions.
In one of history’s great ironies, scientists today know vastly more than their colleagues a century ago, and possess vastly more data-crunching power, but they are much less confident in the prospects for perfect predictability.
– Philip Tetlockin Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
