Is a Biased Vote Better Than No Vote?
Historically, the US hasn’t been very impressive when it comes to voter turnout. In 2016, only 55.7% of the voting-age population voted. In fact, of developed countries, US voter turnout ranks 31 out of 35.1 With one of the most pivotal elections in US history approaching, the calls to action for citizens to vote are loud and clear everywhere, be it on social media, the news, or through friends and family.
We are urged to vote because we must make our voices heard. We are constantly told that our vote holds influence and that our vote is our voice. Higher voter turnout is associated with stronger representation. However, there are specific biases that may influence our decision to vote, or our vote itself, and these “get out the vote” campaigns may actually contribute to such biases.
Regret avoidance and the decision to vote
Early studies conducted by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky found that action often induces more regret than inaction.2 Action can be defined as performing an action that changes (or has the potential to change) a particular situation. In contrast, inaction can be defined as keeping the status quo and doing nothing. Inaction is considered the norm, and so imparts less blame on the individual.3 This phenomenon has been termed the ‘action effect’ — if both action and inaction led to failure, there would be more regret associated with an action.
Here is a vignette to better understand this:
Eric is an investor who holds stock in Company A. He had the option to switch to Company B, but didn’t. He now realizes that if he had done so, he would have been $1000 better off.
Carl is also an investor, and he holds stock in Company B. Carl chose to switch to Company A. He now realizes that if he hadn’t switched, he would have been $1000 better off.
Who is more upset: Eric or Carl?
Eric and Carl are both in the same situation as a result of their decision. The only difference is that Eric chose inaction, while Carl chose action. Yet, 92% of study participants anticipated that Carl would be more upset than Eric.
The action effect may contribute to the decision to not vote. Perhaps people unconsciously worry that their vote can have some unforeseen consequences that they are not fully supportive of, and they would be partly responsible for these consequences. Therefore, they resort to inaction. The alternative — voting — is associated with greater anticipated regret for bad outcomes. This is ironic because many pushes to vote emphasize the importance of a vote, and because of this, some may shy away from taking on that personal burden of responsibility and not vote
References
Barber, M., Gordon, D., Hill, R., & Price, J. (2017). Status Quo Bias in Ballot Wording. In Journal of Experimental Political Science (Vol. 4, Issue 2, pp. 151–160). https://doi.org/10.1017/xps.2017.9
Dean, M., Kıbrıs, Ö., & Masatlioglu, Y. (2017). Limited attention and status quo bias. In Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 169, pp. 93–127). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2017.01.009
Kahneman, D., & Miller, D. T. (1986). Norm theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. In Psychological Review (Vol. 93, Issue 2, pp. 136–153). https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.93.2.136
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). The Psychology of Preferences. In Scientific American (Vol. 246, Issue 1, pp. 160–173). https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0182-160
Meir, R., Gal, K., & Tal, M. (2020). Strategic voting in the lab: compromise and leader bias behavior. In Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems (Vol. 34, Issue 1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10458-020-09446-x
Nebel, J. M. (2015). Status Quo Bias, Rationality, and Conservatism about Value. In Ethics (Vol. 125, Issue 2, pp. 449–476). https://doi.org/10.1086/678482
Samuelson, W., & Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. In Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 7–59). https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00055564
U.S. voter turnout trails most developed countries. (n.d.). Retrieved September 7, 2020, from https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/21/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries/
About the Author
Sanketh Andhavarapu
Sanketh is an undergraduate student at the University of Maryland: College Park studying Health Decision Sciences (individual studies degree) and Biology. He is the co-Founder and co-CEO of Vitalize, a digital wellness platform for healthcare workers, and has published research on topics related to clinical decision-making, neurology, and emergency medicine and critical care. He is also currently leading business development for a new AI innovation at PediaMetrix, a pediatric health startup, and previously founded STEPS, an education nonprofit. Sanketh is interested in the applications of behavioral and decision sciences to improve medical decision-making, and how digital health and health policy serve as a scalable channel to do so.
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