Why is our confidence disproportionate to the difficulty of a task?

The Hard-easy effect

, explained.
Bias

What is the hard-easy effect?

The hard-easy effect, also known as the discriminability effect or the difficulty effect, occurs when we incorrectly predict our ability to complete tasks depending on their level of difficulty. It suggests that we are overly confident in how successful we will be at hard tasks and under-confident about how successful we will be at easy ones. 

Where this bias occurs

The hard-easy effect occurs in any situation where we are asked to predict or comment on our success regarding a task. Our confidence usually doesn’t match our actual ability, which can cause us to be ill-prepared when taking on hard tasks, and stress over easy tasks. While the hard-easy effect is usually demonstrated through our inability to correctly identify whether we got an answer right or wrong, it also can have negative real-life applications.  

For example, imagine that you are learning how to drive. To get your license, you have to complete both a written exam and a driving test. Arguably, the driving test is the more difficult component of obtaining a license, because it is based on skill and knowledge, whereas the written exam is mostly based on knowledge. However, according to the hard-easy effect, you are likely to be over-confident in your ability to pass the driving test and under-confident on how likely you are to pass the written exam. As a result, you barely practice driving and focus all your time on studying for the written task. When it comes to the day of the exam, the hard-easy effect may have made it easy for you to pass the written exam, but since you were too confident about your driving skills, you fail the driving test.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Moore, D. A., & Healy, P. J. (2008). The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review, 115(2), 502-517. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.115.2.502
  2. Skala, D. (2008). Overconfidence in Psychology and Finance – an Interdisciplinary Literature Review. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 33-50. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/26386/
  3. Suantak, L., Bolger, F., & Ferrell, W. R. (1996). The hard–easy effect in subjective probability calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 67(2), 201-221. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.0074
  4. Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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