Abductive Reasoning
The Basic Idea
The scientific method begins with a hypothesis—an educated guess. After making some sort of observation about the world, scientists come up with a potential explanation, which they put to the test using cleverly-designed experiments. But until there’s data to back them up, hypotheses are just stabs in the dark: they might be accurate, but they also might not be.
The generation of hypotheses relies on a particular kind of logical inference, known as abductive reasoning, abduction, “inference to the best explanation,” or, simply, “hypothesis.” Alongside its sisters, deductive (“top-down”) reasoning and inductive (“bottom-up”) reasoning, abductive reasoning is a core component of the methodology of science, and although it cannot itself be the basis for any sort of conclusions about the world, it represents the crucial first step towards that end.
Abduction is the process of forming explanatory hypotheses. It is the only logical operation which introduces any new idea..
- Charles Peirce1
About the Authors
Dan Pilat
Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.
Dr. Sekoul Krastev
Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.
