Why do we believe that nothing bad is going to happen?
Normalcy Bias
, explained.What is the normalcy bias?
The normalcy bias describes our tendency to underestimate the possibility of disaster and believe that life will continue as normal, even in the face of significant threats or crises.
Where this bias occurs
Consider the following hypothetical scenario: Emma, a meticulous planner, lives in a region prone to occasional earthquakes. Despite the area’s history of seismic activity, Emma has never experienced a major earthquake in her lifetime. Consequently, she disregards the importance of preparing an emergency kit or formulating an evacuation plan, firmly convinced that her day-to-day life will remain unaltered. ‘Those things happen to other people, not me’, she continues to tell herself.
One day, as Emma goes about her usual routine, she feels a subtle tremor beneath her feet. Instead of immediately recognizing the potential danger and taking precautionary measures, she brushes off the sensation, attributing it to a passing construction truck or some other mundane cause. Within seconds, the light tremor turns into strong shaking and Emma finds herself stuck inside her apartment during a major earthquake.
As this example shows, the normalcy bias occurs when individuals encounter potential threats but instinctively downplay their significance. Emma’s confidence in the predictability of her daily routine prevented her from acknowledging the risks of a major earthquake and the need to prepare accordingly. This cognitive bias is not just confined to natural disasters; it permeates various aspects of our lives, affecting our ability to recognize and respond effectively to impending challenges such as financial uncertainties and health crises.
