Why do we think some things are related when they aren’t?

Illusory Correlation

, explained.
Bias

What is illusory correlation?

Illusory Correlation is when we see an association between two variables (events, actions, ideas, etc.) when they aren’t actually associated.

Where illusory correlation is seen

Consider the following hypothetical: Jane is an avid football fan. She watches every game that her beloved “Guardians” play on live television. Jane always wears her tattered Guardians jersey while watching their games— the same one she has worn for years.

According to Jane, it is vital that she wear her “lucky jersey.” The success of her team depends on it. A few years earlier, Jane had noticed that when she didn’t wear her jersey, the Guardians lost. This phenomenon happened a few times before Jane’s superstitions were solidified. Now, she is certain: the success of her favorite football team is in some way related to her wearing this jersey.

Jane’s mistaken belief that wearing her jersey at home is related to performance of her favorite football team can be attributed to illusory correlation. The two variables are not related in the way that say, height and weight are, for example.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Ritter, D. (2014, November 02). When to Act on a Correlation, and When Not To. Retrieved July 19, 2020, from https://hbr.org/2014/03/when-to-act-on-a-correlation-and-when-not-to
  2. Hyman, I. (2015, June 21). Race, Violence, and Illusory Correlations. Retrieved July 19, 2020, from https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/mental-mishaps/201506/race-violence-and-illusory-correlations
  3. Ousey, G. C., & Kubrin, C. E. (2018). Immigration and Crime: Assessing a Contentious Issue. Annual Review of Criminology, 1(1), 63-84. doi:10.1146/annurev-criminol-032317-092026
  4. Illusory Correlation (SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY) – iResearchNet. (2016, January 21). Retrieved July 19, 2020, from https://psychology.iresearchnet.com/social-psychology/decision-making/illusory-correlation/
  5. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 5(2), 207-232. doi:10.1016/0010-0285(73)90033-9
  6. Munro, G. D., & Stansbury, J. A. (2009). The Dark Side of Self-Affirmation: Confirmation Bias and Illusory Correlation in Response to Threatening Information. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 35(9), 1143-1153. doi:10.1177/0146167209337163
  7. Matute, H., Yarritu, I. and Vadillo, M.A. (2011), Illusions of causality at the heart of pseudoscience. British Journal of Psychology, 102: 392-405. doi:10.1348/000712610X532210
  8. Illusory correlation. (2015). Retrieved July 20, 2020, from https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199657681.001.0001/acref-9780199657681-e-405
  9. Fiedler, K., Hemmeter, U., & Hofmann, C. (1984). The Origin of Illusory Correlations. European Journal of Social Psychology.
  10. Barbera, F. L. (2015). Educating to Tolerance: Effects of Communicating Social Psychology Research Findings. Europe’s Journal of Psychology, 11(3), 476-483. doi:10.5964/ejop.v11i3.888
  11. Bender, J. C., Osler, C. L., & Simon, D. (2012). Noise Trading and Illusory Correlations in US Equity Markets*. Review of Finance, 17(2), 625-652. doi:10.1093/rof/rfr037
  12. Kolev, G., & Hogarth, R. (2010). Illusory correlation in the remuneration of chief executive officers: It pays to play golf, and well. Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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