Why do we think the past is better than the future?

Declinism

, explained.
Bias

What is Declinism?

Declinism is the tendency to see the past in an overly positive light and to view the present or future in an overly negative light, leading us to believe that things are worse than they used to be. Declinism is often a feeling harbored about the overall state of a country, society, or institution, with the view that it is in decline or getting worse.

Where this bias occurs

Think back to the last time you tuned into the news. You are likely to have been presented with negative and violent stories, whether they be about racism, COVID-19, or the climate crisis. 

How are those news stories likely to make us feel? Probably like society is in impending doom. It is difficult not to think that things are constantly getting worse when these are the images we are presented with. When these kinds of news stories are combined with hearing our parents or grandparents tell stories about “the good old times”, we tend to overestimate how great the past was and overestimate how negative the present is. This leads to declinism, a negative bias that makes us believe that the worst is yet to come.  

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Spruyt, B., Keppens, G., & Van Droogenbroeck, F. (2016). Who supports populism and what attracts people to it? Political Research Quarterly, 69(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912916639138
  2. Etchells, P. (2018, February 14). Declinism: Is the world actually getting worse? The Guardian. 
  3. Chavern, D. C. (2014, October 14). Chavern: America must choose not to decline. Statesman News Network. https://www.statesman.com/news/20141014/chavern-america-must-choose-not-to-decline
  4. Singer, P. (2011, October 9). Is violence history? The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/books/review/the-better-angels-of-our-nature-by-steven-pinker-book-review.html
  5. Mann, J. (2017, August 8). What do you mean, the good old days? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2012/apr/28/housewives-fifties-good-old-days
  6. COVID19 recovery. (n.d.). COVID19 RECOVERY. https://www.covid19recovery.net/about-us
  7. Gopnik, A. (2011, September 12). Decline, fall, rinse, repeat. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/09/12/decline-fall-rinse-repeat
  8. Sutin, A. R., Terracciano, A., Milaneschi, Y., An, Y., Ferrucci, L., & Zonderman, A. B. (2013). The effect of birth cohort on well-being. Psychological Science, 24(3), 379-385. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797612459658
  9. Elchardus, M. (2017). Declinism and Populism. Clingendael Spectator 3, 71(1), 1-10. https://spectator.clingendael.org/pub/2017/3/_/pdf/IS-2017-3-elchardus.pdf https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2015/jan/16/declinism-is-the-world-actually-getting-worse
  10. Neimanis, A., Åsberg, C., & Hedrén, J. (2015). Four problems, four directions for environmental humanities: Toward critical Posthumanities for the Anthropocene. Ethics and the Environment, 20(1), 67. https://doi.org/10.2979/ethicsenviro.20.1.67

 

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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