Correlation vs Causation

If you’ve ever argued with someone who has taken statistics 101, you might have heard them say with pride, “correlation does not imply causation.” This mantra is repeatedly applied when people erroneously assume that two variables bear a cause-and-effect relationship rather than merely displaying a similar pattern of occurrences. Although the rooster’s crow happens every morning as the sun rises, it does not cause the sun to rise.

Classic examples that illustrate this concept often involve odd correlations with ice cream sales, such as forest fires, drownings, sunburns, and even shark attacks. Consider the correlation with forest fires, where the amount of forest fires increases alongside an increase in people buying ice cream. Does this mean that people buying ice cream are causing the fires? Certainly not. They merely display similar statistical patterns as they both occur when it’s hot in the summer. Although this example is an intuitive case where neither of the variables causes the other, many correlations can be more difficult to decipher.