Imagine you open your Facebook page and see a fundraising program for koalas burnt in the Australian bushfires. You see that Sarah (your best friend), Tom (your neighbor), and John (your friend’s colleague) have already donated to the cause. You click the link to donate and announce your participation by pressing the button so that everyone knows you support the same cause. Had you financially planned for that donation in advance? Probably not, but you like Sarah, so if she did it, maybe you should too.
This hallmark study,¹ which sought to investigate if social media can increase voter turnout, was performed in the US in 2010 and published in 2012 in the prestigious journal Nature. It has since been mentioned more than 50 times in different blogs and news sites, including The Guardian. Despite the widely-held belief that online mobilization played a significant role in recent elections,² the results of a meta-analysis study on email experiments indicate that online methods are ineffective for influencing voter behavior.³ What makes social media so attractive to researchers is the possibility of reaching large populations that it brings; even an increase in the number of voters as small as 1% can be substantial given a large enough population of users.
To verify the hypothesis that voter turnout can be increased with the help of an online social network, the researchers randomly chose about 61 million eligible voters who had access to Facebook on November 2nd, 2010, the day of US congressional elections. Individuals were randomly assigned to either a control group, a social message group, or an informational group, and the actual voting rate was collected for the individuals who participated in this study using public voting records.
The social message group, in which individuals saw their friends’ faces randomly, pressed the “I Voted” button about 3% more than the information group. This indicates that merely seeing familiar faces can impact an individual’s voting behavior. This group also clicked on the link that provided information on where to vote 0.26% more than the information group, suggesting that seeing familiar faces has a small yet positive impact on information-seeking behaviors.
In terms of real votes, the social message group voted 0.39% more than the control group, suggesting that seeing the faces of friends can contribute to an increase in real-world voting. Interestingly, the number of real-world votes for the social message group was the same as that of the information group, suggesting that seeing pictures of friends isn’t enough to increase real-world voting in and of itself, even though this increased the number of people who said they voted.
To better identify the contagion (i.e., the indirect effects that spread from a person to another because of being friends), the researchers used the number of Facebook interactions between each pair of friends as a proxy for their closeness. Therefore, the researchers could test whether the closeness of friendships can change the voting behavior of individuals. The results showed that the probability of voting increases in individuals whose close friends had voted.
The results of this study demonstrate that while friendships increased political self-expression (i.e., the act of saying that you’re voting), close friendships—although they make up only 7% of Facebook friendships—accounted for a significant increase in real voting. It has been estimated that Facebook social messages increased the number of votes directly by about 60,000 votes and indirectly (i.e., through social contagion) by another 280,000 votes.