Why do we overestimate our emotional reactions to future events?

Impact Bias

, explained.
Bias

What is Impact Bias?

The impact bias refers to our tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of our emotional reactions to future circumstances. This occurs when we incorrectly predict how severely an event will impact our emotional state, imagining a stronger and more lasting emotional impact than we actually experience.

Where this bias occurs

Imagine you’re planning a dream vacation to a sandy beach somewhere. You believe this trip will bring you immense happiness and long-term satisfaction. However, when you eventually leave on the trip, you realize your happiness is not as intense or long-lasting as you had envisioned. In reality, your dream adventure comes with the inevitable inconveniences of travel. From crowds and unexpected weather to jet lag and sunburns, you face several minor setbacks on your vacation. While you still have an enjoyable time, you’re disappointed that you did not experience the immeasurable happiness and blissful relaxation you had expected.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Wilson, T. D. & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). Affective Forecasting: Knowing What to Want. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 14(3), 131-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0963-7214.2005.00355.x
  2. Pedersen, T. (2009). Affective Forecasting: Predicting Future Satisfaction with Public Transport. Licentiate dissertation, Karlstad University. Retrieved Nov 29, 2023 from https://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-4868
  3. Gilbert, Daniel T.; Pinel, Elizabeth C.; Wilson, Timothy D.; Blumberg, Stephen J.; Wheatley, Thalia P. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75(3): 617-638. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.617
  4. Wilson, T. D., Meyers, J., & Gilbert, D. T. (2003). “How Happy Was I, Anyway?” A Retrospective Impact Bias. Social Cognition, 21(6), 421–446. https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.21.6.421.28688
  5. Miloyan, Beyon & Suddendorf, Thomas. (2015) Feelings of the future. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 19(4), 196-200. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2015.01.008
  6. Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78(5), 821–836. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.821
  7. Morewedge, C. K., Gilbert, D. T., & Wilson, T. D. (2005). The Least Likely of Times: How Remembering the Past Biases Forecasts of the Future. Psychological Science, 16(8), 626-630. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2005.01585.x
  8. Ayton, Peter, Pott, Alice, & Elwakili, Najat (2007) Affective forecasting: Why can't people predict their emotions? Thinking & Reasoning, 13:1, 62-80, https://doi.org/10.1080/13546780600872726

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

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