Diffusion of Innovation

You didn’t plan to get a smartwatch—your phone already does the job. But then your coworkers start talking about sleep score. Your cousin checks their heart rate during a movie. A friend taps their wrist to pay for groceries. These moments feel ordinary, until they start stacking up. You’re still on the fence, but suddenly the product is everywhere—on wrists, in ads, in casual conversations. What once seemed like an optional upgrade now feels stitched into daily life. At a certain point, the question you ask yourself flips. You’re no longer asking whether the product is useful. You’re asking whether it feels normal to go without it.

That shift is what diffusion of innovation helps explain. The theory outlines how new ideas, behaviors, or products spread through a population—not all at once, but across five stages.¹ First are the innovators, the adventurous few who try something simply because it’s new. They’re followed by early adopters, who often care about social identity, reputation, or being ahead of the curve. Then comes the early majority, a more deliberate group that opens up to the idea once it proves useful. The late majority waits until the innovation blends into everyday life, when using it feels expected rather than experimental. And finally, the laggards, who adopt last—often out of necessity rather than choice.

What makes an invention or idea move through these stages? According to the diffusion of innovation theory, five characteristics shape how quickly (or whether) an innovation will spread.

• Compatibility: Does it fit into things people already do?
• Relative advantage: Does it seem better than the alternative?
• Observability: Can others see the benefits in action?
• Simplicity: Is it easy to understand and use?
• Trialability: Can people try it without a big commitment?

The more of these boxes the concept checks, the smoother the journey from fringe idea to widespread norm.

Rather than simply how an innovation works, a major tipping point is how many people seem to be using it.  We often look to others for cues on what deserves our time. When an innovation appears in daily life, whether at the gym, during meetings, or across social media, it gradually starts to feel familiar.² And with familiarity comes legitimacy. You don’t need a full explanation to believe it works. You just need to see enough people using it. 

To sum up, diffusion of innovation doesn’t predict which ideas will thrive. However, it does give us a lens to understand how change takes shape, and why some innovations gain traction while others fade. It also leaves us with one last reminder: everything that seems ubiquitous today once belonged to a single early innovator who took the first risk.