The Delphi Method
The Basic Idea
The Delphi method is a technique used in group decision-making and some forms of qualitative research. It involves gathering a panel of experts, having them complete a survey or questionnaire individually, and sharing these anonymised answers within the panel to allow for feedback and debate. Each expert is presented with the questions again, and the process is repeated. It is expected that all opinions will eventually converge around a general consensus.
The Delphi method has been used extensively in forecasting, especially in business and technology. It’s also a commonly used tool in public policy: when policymakers use panels of experts to inform decisions around issues like healthcare, education and climate change, they frequently make use of the Delphi method.
Where all think alike, no one thinks very much.
– Walter Lippman
