From Paralysis to Progress: Why Stubborn Optimism Is Our Best Tool Against Climate Change
Back in 2021, I wrote an article urging scientists and publications to shift their framing around climate change, moving from narratives steeped in doom and despair to highlighting the positives a sustainable future can bring.
Less than two years after that article had been published, my hometown was ravaged by the “Great Vermont Flood”—a catastrophic event that exceeded historical records and that national risk assessments predicted would occur only once every few centuries. With a hint of tragic irony, exactly one year later, Vermont was hit again with a “1-in-1,000-year rainfall event” that resulted in another series of severe floods. All of this struck a region touted as a “climate haven, ”considered among the safest and most resilient in the U.S. against the advancing impacts of climate change.
Despite these events (or, perhaps even more so because of them), I maintain my original position: we need to change the way we talk about climate change if we are going to motivate action. As the climate crisis unfolds with increasing intensity, it casts a long shadow over our collective psyche. The emotional toll of hearing about and experiencing devastating natural disasters—floods, wildfires, or any other type of extreme weather—can leave us feeling powerless and even more hopeless. While the science behind climate change is more or less settled, our path for how we navigate it is not. And when facing a turbulent future, we have a tendency to systematically exaggerate the likelihood of negative outcomes and underestimate positive ones. Left unchecked, this can lead us astray with misguided expectations, clouding our judgment of the future and stunting our ability to act.
The solution, believe it or not, is not providing more clarity about what is to come (though clairvoyance would certainly be a breakthrough for behavioral science). Rather, it is about changing our relationship with the future from one of discouragement to one of inspiration. The struggle to maintain hope and optimism in the face of alarming trends feels counterintuitive, but it is exactly what we need to start making lasting changes to avoid climate catastrophe once and for all.
Our expectations for the future shape the reality we build. When we are bound by visions of collapse, we risk limiting our outcomes to the bleak. But by imagining a more hopeful future, we unlock countless possibilities for transformation. In this piece, we’ll explore how a mindset of “stubborn optimism” can reframe our climate narratives, channeling our despair into determined action. Together, we’ll examine why this shift in outlook matters, how it influences what we do, and the potential it holds to guide us through the steep challenges ahead.
When Despair Takes Hold
Growing up in New England, I’ve always had a complicated relationship with winter. The days are cold, light is fleeting, and now many of the elements that once made the season bearable are disappearing. Snow quickly melts or falls as freezing rain. Lakes no longer freeze over as they once did. New England simply is no longer a charming, picturesque “winter wonderland” as before. Reflecting on the drastic changes that have occurred in my short lifetime evokes a profound sense of loss.
I share this to stress my own emotional pain and how it resonates with so many others when considering the harm that we’ve inflicted upon our natural world. In other words, I am not blindly promoting optimistic narratives without recognizing the stakes involved: the ecosystems at risk, the species we may lose, and even the subtle changes already affecting our communities and way of life.
The psychological impact of climate change cannot be understated. Eco-grief and anxiety are not solely products of experiencing natural disasters; these feelings can also arise as our world becomes less familiar, slowly at first but insidiously escalating toward the looming threat of environmental degradation—along with our perceived helplessness in combating it. Recent findings from Yale and George Mason University reveal this sentiment is pervasive.1 Nearly 10% of adults in the United States frequently experience feelings of hopelessness and an inability to manage their worries due to the overwhelming nature of the climate crisis. Put another way, the abrupt changes to our natural world are causing an estimated twenty-five million people to suffer from anxious and depressive symptoms.
Without a determined belief in solutions, it’s all too easy to give in to climate fatalism—the idea that it’s too late to alter the trajectory we’re on, that our actions are inconsequential, or that our best hope is to colonize Mars.2 However, amidst this backdrop of despair, we can meaningfully engage with feelings of eco-anxiety and transform them into a source of empowerment. By acknowledging and facing our fears and uncertainties head-on, we can convert distress into motivation and hope, ultimately building resilience and fostering a deeper connection to climate action.
Maintaining hope, then, is not merely a stance but a moral obligation. We must approach climate change with this mindset to avoid exacerbating harm to the most vulnerable.
References
- Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S., Kotcher, J., Goddard, E., Carman, J., Ballew, M., Verner, M., Myers, T., Marlon, J., Lee, S., Goldberg, M., Badullovich, N., & Thier, K. (2024). Climate Change in the American Mind: Beliefs & Attitudes, Spring 2024. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/climate-change-in-the-american-mind-beliefs-attitudes-spring-2024/
- Risen, T. (2017, June). Selling Mars as Planet B. Aerospace America. https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/selling-mars-as-planet-b/
- Sharot, T., Riccardi, A. M., Raio, C. M., & Phelps, E. A. (2007). Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature, 450(7166), 102-105. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17960136/
- Kaufman, S. B. (2015). Hope, the Future and Flourishing with Shane Lopez. https://scottbarrykaufman.com/podcast/hope-the-future-and-flourishing-with-shane-lopez/
- Tucker, I. (2022, March 5). Mary-Frances O'Connor: 'People struggle to understand grief, but it is a byproduct of love'. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/mar/05/mary-frances-oconnor-the-grieving-brain-grief-psychology
- Kaufman, S. B. (2021, August 11). Tragic Optimism Is the Opposite of Toxic Positivity. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/08/tragic-optimism-opposite-toxic-positivity/619786/
- Seligman, M. E., Railton, P., Baumeister, R. F., & Sripada, C. (2013). Navigating Into the Future or Driven by the Past. Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, 8(2), 119–141. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691612474317
- Anderson, K. (2024, September 24). International Cooperation: Key to Combating the Climate Crisis. https://greenly.earth/en-us/blog/ecology-news/international-cooperation-key-to-combating-the-climate-crisis
- Davenport, C. & Friedman, L. (2024, November 6). What a 2nd Trump Presidency Means for Climate Change. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/climate/trump-climate-change.html
- Mann, R. (2013, August 24). March on Washington reflected optimism and outrage: Robert Mann. NOLA.com. https://www.nola.com/opinions/march-on-washington-reflected-optimism-and-outrage-robert-mann/article_87a3401f-b8eb-5854-a799-7ff8de67d412.html
About the Author
Desmond Kirwan
Desmond Kirwan is a consultant at VEIC, where he leads projects focused on equitable building decarbonization and electrification in underserved communities. He applies behavioral science to design strategies that drive sustainable energy behaviors and facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Desmond holds a Master of Science in Environment and Sustainability, concentrating in Behavior, Education, and Communication, from the University of Michigan. His research spans heat pump adoption, climate communication, and resilience hubs, with a focus on advancing equity in energy transitions.
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