Public Policy Without Behavioral Science is Dangerous
Imagine you’re driving along the highway, and see an electric sign saying “79 traffic deaths this year.” Would this make you less likely to crash your car shortly after seeing the sign? Perhaps you think it would have no effect?
Neither is true. According to a recent peer-reviewed study1 in the journal Science, one of the world’s top academic publications, you would be more likely to crash, not less. Talk about unintended consequences!
Where this road safety campaign went off course
The study examined seven years of data from 880 electric highway signs, which showed the number of deaths so far this year for one week each month as part of a safety campaign. The researchers found that the number of crashes increased by 1.52% within three miles of the signs on these safety campaign weeks compared to the other weeks of the month when the signs did not show fatality information.
That’s about the same impact as raising the speed limit by four miles or decreasing the number of highway troopers by 10%. The scientists calculated that the social costs of such fatality messages amount to $377 million per year, with 2,600 additional crashes and 16 deaths.
The cause? Distracted driving.2 These “in-your-face” messages, the study finds, grab your attention and undermine your driving — the same reason you shouldn’t text and drive.
Supporting their hypothesis, the scientists discovered that the increase in crashes is higher when the reported deaths are higher. Thus, later in the year as the number of reported deaths on the sign goes up, so does the percentage of crashes. And it’s not the weather: the effect of showing the fatality messages decreased by 11% between January and February, as the displayed number of deaths resets for the year. They also uncovered that the increase in crashes is largest in more complex road segments, which require more focus from the driver.
Their research also aligns with other studies. One3 proved that increasing people’s anxiety causes them to drive worse. Another4 showed drivers fatality messages in a laboratory setting and determined that doing so increased cognitive load, making them distracted drivers.
If the authorities actually paid attention to cognitive science research, they would never have launched these fatality message advertisements. Instead, they relied on armchair psychology and followed their gut intuitions on what should work, rather than measuring what does work.5 The result was what scholars call a boomerang effect,6 meaning when an intervention produces an effect opposite to that intended.
References
- Hall, J. D., & Madsen, J. (2020). Can Behavioral Interventions Be Too Salient? Evidence From Traffic Safety Messages. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3633014
- Strayer, D.L., Cooper, J.M., Turrill, J., Coleman, J.R., Medeiros-Ward, N. & Biondi, F. (2013). Measuring Cognitive Distraction in the Automobile (Technical Report). Washington, D.C.: AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety.
- Roidl, E., Frehse, B., & Höger, R. (2014). Emotional states of drivers and the impact on speed, acceleration and traffic violations—A simulator study. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 70, 282–292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.04.010
- Shealy, T., Kryschtal, P., Franczek, K., & Katz, B. J. (2021). Driver Response to Dynamic Message Sign Safety Campaign Messages (FHWA/VTRC 20-R16). https://www.virginiadot.org/vtrc/main/online_reports/pdf/20-r16.pdf
- Tsipursky, G., & Howard, J. R. (2019). Never Go With Your Gut: How Pioneering Leaders Make the Best Decisions and Avoid Business Disasters. CAREER Press.
- APA Dictionary of Psychology. (n.d.). American Psychological Association. https://dictionary.apa.org/boomerang-effect
- Hornik, R., Jacobsohn, L., Orwin, R., Piesse, A., & Kalton, G. (2008). Effects of the National Youth Anti-Drug Media Campaign on Youths. American Journal of Public Health, 98(12), 2229–2236. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.2007.125849
- Güntner, A., Lucks, K., & Sperling-Magro, J. (2021, March 1). Lessons from the front line of corporate nudging. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/people-and-organizational-performance/our-insights/lessons-from-the-front-line-of-corporate-nudging
- Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103(3), 582–591. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.103.3.582
- Tsipursky, T., & McRaney, D. (2020). The Blindspots Between Us: How to Overcome Unconscious Cognitive Bias and Build Better Relationships. New Harbinger Publications.
- Tsipursky, G. (2022, April 3). 10 Science-Based Tips to Avoid Dating Disasters. Www.Top10.Com. https://www.top10.com/dating/10-science-tips-to-avoid-dating-disaster
- Mertens, S., Herberz, M., Hahnel, U. J. J., & Brosch, T. (2022). The effectiveness of nudging: A meta-analysis of choice architecture interventions across behavioral domains. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119(19). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2204059119
- Hummel, D., & Maedche, A. (2019). How effective is nudging? A quantitative review on the effect sizes and limits of empirical nudging studies. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 80, 47–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2019.03.005
- BehavioralEconomics.com. (2022, February 17). How Well Do Nudges Work? BehavioralEconomics.Com | The BE Hub. https://www.behavioraleconomics.com/how-well-do-nudges-work/
- Tsipursky, G. (2020, May 4). 12 Mental Skills to Defeat Cognitive Biases. Disaster Avoidance Experts. https://disasteravoidanceexperts.com/12-mental-skills-to-defeat-cognitive-biases/
About the Author
Gleb Tsipursky
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky is a behavioral economist, cognitive neuroscientist, and a bestselling author of several books on decision-making and cognitive biases. His newest book is Pro Truth: A Pragmatic Plan to Put Truth Back Into Politics (Changemakers Book, 2020). Dr. Tsipursky is on a mission to protect people from dangerous judgment errors through his cutting-edge expertise in disaster avoidance, decision making, social and emotional intelligence, and risk management. He founded Disaster Avoidance Experts, a behavioral economics consulting firm that empowers leaders and organizations to avoid business disasters. His thought-leadership has been featured in over 500 articles that he has published as well as 450 interviews he has given to popular venues such as CBS News, Scientific American, Psychology Today, and Fast Company, among others. Dr. Tsipursky earned his PhD in the History of Behavioral Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, his M.A. at Harvard University, and his B.A. at New York University.
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