Why do we favor our existing beliefs?

The 

Confirmation Bias

, explained.
Bias

What is confirmation bias?

The confirmation bias describes our underlying tendency to notice, focus on, and give greater credence to evidence that fits with our existing beliefs.

An illustration of two stick figures. The figure on the left, under a sun, is smiling and saying, "Did you read my paper on confirmation bias?" The figure on the right responds, "Yes, but it only proved what I already knew..." Between them is a blackboard with the Bayesian probability formula: P(A|B) = [P(B|A)P(A)] / P(B).

Where this bias occurs

Consider the following hypothetical situation: Jane is the manager of a local coffee shop. She is a firm believer in the motto, “hard work equals success.” The coffee shop, however, has seen a slump in sales over the past few months. Since Jane strongly believes that “hard work” is a means to success, she concludes that the dip in the coffee shop’s sales is because her staff is not working hard enough. To account for this, Jane puts several measures in place to ensure that her staff is working consistently. Consequently, she ends up spending more money by having a greater number of employees staffed on a shift, exceeding the shop’s budget and thus contributing to overall losses.

Consulting with other business owners in her area, Jane is able to identify her store’s new, less visible location as the primary cause of her sales slump. Her belief in hard work as the most important metric of success led her to mistakenly identify employees’ lack of effort as the reason for the store’s falling revenue while ignoring evidence that pointed to the true cause: the shop’s poor location. Jane has fallen victim to confirmation bias, which caused her to notice and give greater credence to evidence that fits with her pre-existing beliefs.

As this example illustrates, our personal beliefs can weigh us down when conflicting information is present. Not only does it stop us from finding a solution, but we also may not even be able to identify the problem to begin with.  

Sources

  1. Healy, P. (2016, August 18). Confirmation bias: How it affects your organization and how to overcome it. Business Insights Blog. https://online.hbs.edu/blog/post/confirmation-bias-how-it-affects-your-organization-and-how-to-overcome-it 
  2. Ling, R. (2020). Confirmation bias in the era of mobile news consumption: The social and psychological dimensions. Digital Journalism, 8(5), 596–604. https://doi.org/10.1080/21670811.2020.1766987
  3. Hastall, M. R. (2020). Selective exposure, perception, and retention. The SAGE International Encyclopedia of Mass Media and Society, 1–5, 1537–1539. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781483375519  
  4. Schlosser, J. A. (2013). “Hope, danger’s comforter”: Thucydides, hope, politics. The Journal of Politics, 75(1), 169–182. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022381612000941 
  5. Badcock, C. (2012, May 5). Making sense of wason. Psychology Today. https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/the-imprinted-brain/201205/making-sense-wason 
  6. Lord, C. G., Ross, L., & Lepper, M. R. (1979). Biased assimilation and attitude polarization: The effects of prior theories on subsequently considered evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(11), 2098–2109. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.37.11.2098 
  7. Pariser, E. (2012). The filter bubble: What the internet is hiding from you. Penguin Books. 

About the Authors

A man in a blue, striped shirt smiles while standing indoors, surrounded by green plants and modern office decor.

Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

A smiling man stands in an office, wearing a dark blazer and black shirt, with plants and glass-walled rooms in the background.

Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Sekoul is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. A decision scientist with a PhD in Decision Neuroscience from McGill University, Sekoul's work has been featured in peer-reviewed journals and has been presented at conferences around the world. Sekoul previously advised management on innovation and engagement strategy at The Boston Consulting Group as well as on online media strategy at Google. He has a deep interest in the applications of behavioral science to new technology and has published on these topics in places such as the Huffington Post and Strategy & Business.

About us

We are the leading applied research & innovation consultancy

Our insights are leveraged by the most ambitious organizations

Image

“

I was blown away with their application and translation of behavioral science into practice. They took a very complex ecosystem and created a series of interventions using an innovative mix of the latest research and creative client co-creation. I was so impressed at the final product they created, which was hugely comprehensive despite the large scope of the client being of the world's most far-reaching and best known consumer brands. I'm excited to see what we can create together in the future.

Heather McKee

BEHAVIORAL SCIENTIST

GLOBAL COFFEEHOUSE CHAIN PROJECT

OUR CLIENT SUCCESS

$0M

Annual Revenue Increase

By launching a behavioral science practice at the core of the organization, we helped one of the largest insurers in North America realize $30M increase in annual revenue.

0%

Increase in Monthly Users

By redesigning North America's first national digital platform for mental health, we achieved a 52% lift in monthly users and an 83% improvement on clinical assessment.

0%

Reduction In Design Time

By designing a new process and getting buy-in from the C-Suite team, we helped one of the largest smartphone manufacturers in the world reduce software design time by 75%.

0%

Reduction in Client Drop-Off

By implementing targeted nudges based on proactive interventions, we reduced drop-off rates for 450,000 clients belonging to USA's oldest debt consolidation organizations by 46%

Let's chat

Read Next

Einstellung Effect

Why do our past experiences prevent us from reaching the best possible outcome?

Why do our past experiences prevent us from reaching the best possible outcome?

Learn More

Cognitive Dissonance

Why is it so hard to change someone's beliefs?

Why is it so hard to change someone's beliefs?

Learn More

False Consensus Effect

Why do we overestimate agreement?

Why do we overestimate agreement?

Learn More
See All
Notes illustration

Eager to learn about how behavioral science can help your organization?

Contact us