Why do we think we have more control over the world than we do?

The 

Illusion of Control

, explained.
Bias

What is the Illusion of Control?

The illusion of control, also known as illusory control, describes how we believe we have greater control over events than we actually do. Even when something is a matter of random chance, we often feel like we’re able to influence it in some way.

Three stick figures standing under a dark storm cloud with lightning and rain. The stick figure on the left is saying, "Sorry, I made it rain... stepped on an ant," while the figure on the right responds with, "How could you?!". The image humorously depicts the illusion that one can control or influence external events, like the weather, through their actions.

Where it occurs

You and your family are going to watch your favorite soccer team in the league championship match. As always, your dad wears his “lucky” jersey in the team’s colors. It’s a little small on him these days and has been patched up dozens of times, but he insists on wearing it because he believes it will boost the team’s chances of winning.

In his mind, this jersey is essential to the team’s success. He remembers wearing it during a last-minute comeback and again when they won the championship five years ago. This is a classic example of the illusion of control—a bias where people believe they can influence outcomes that are actually random. He vividly recalls the wins while wearing the jersey, but conveniently forgets the times they lost—reinforcing his belief that the jersey plays a role in the team’s success.

The illusion of control shapes everything from superstitions and gambling to financial decisions and sports rituals. Whether it’s an athlete following a strict pre-game routine, a gambler believing they can predict dice rolls, or someone in the check-out line thinking their lucky number will help them win the lottery, the illusion of control may provide a sense of comfort and predictability in an uncertain world. However, as this article explores, the illusion also gives us unrealistic perceptions of control over situations, often with negative effects.

Related Biases

Sources

  1. Cowley, E., Briley, D. A., & Farrell, C. (2015). How do gamblers maintain an illusion of control? Journal of Business Research, 68(10), 2181-2188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.018
  2. Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311-328. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311
  3. Glass, D. C., Reim, B., & Singer, J. E. (1971). Behavioral consequences of adaptation to controllable and uncontrollable noise. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 7(2), 244-257. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1031(71)90070-9
  4. Miller, W. R., & Seligman, M. E. (1975). Depression and learned helplessness in man. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 84(3), 228-238. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0076720
  5. Optimism bias. (2019, August 22). The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/optimism-bias/
  6. Dunning–Kruger effect. (2020, July 22). The Decision Lab. https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/dunning-kruger-effect/
  7. Ackerman, C. E. (2019, April 7). Pollyanna principle: The psychology of positivity bias. PositivePsychology.com. https://positivepsychology.com/pollyanna-principle/
  8. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.
  9. Lopez-Gonzalez, H., Estévez, A., & Griffiths, M. D. (2017). Controlling the illusion of control: A grounded theory of sports betting advertising in the UK. International Gambling Studies, 18(1), 39-55. https://doi.org/10.1080/14459795.2017.1377747
  10. Fenton-O’Creevy, M., Nicholson, N., Soane, E., & Willman, P. (2003). Trading on illusions: Unrealistic perceptions of control and trading performance. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 76(1), 53-68. https://doi.org/10.1348/096317903321208880
  11. Matute, H., Blanco, F., Yarritu, I., Díaz-Lago, M., Vadillo, M. A., & Barberia, I. (2015). Illusions of causality: How they bias our everyday thinking and how they could be reduced. Frontiers in Psychology, 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00888
  12. Lovallo, D., & Kahneman, D. (2003, July). Delusions of success: How optimism undermines executives’ decisions. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2003/07/delusions-of-success-how-optimism-undermines-executives-decisions
  13. PlaySmart. (n.d.). Lottery odds. OLG PlaySmart – Gambling Facts, Tools and Advice. https://www.playsmart.ca/lottery-instant-games/lottery/odds/
  14. Mele, C. (2016, October 27). Pushing That Crosswalk Button May Make You Feel Better, but …. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/us/placebo-buttons-elevators-crosswalks.html
  15. Rudski, J. (2004). The illusion of control, superstitious belief, and optimism. Current Psychology, 22(4), 306-315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-004-1036-8
  16. Plante, S. G. (2019, October 23). “It’s just a big illusion”: How homeopathy went from fringe medicine to the grocery aisles. Vox. https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/10/16/20910346/homeopathic-homeopathy-holistic-alternative-medicine-oscillococcinum-history
  17. Nowotny, H. (2024). AI and the illusion of control. In Proceedings of the Paris Institute for Advanced Study (V ol. 1).
  18. Fetterolf, E., & Hertog, E. (2023). It’s not her fault: Trust through anthropomorphism among young adult Amazon Alexa users. Convergence, 0(0). 
  19. Elbaum, S., & Panter, J. (2024, December 6). AI Weapons and the Dangerous Illusion of Human Control. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/ai-weapons-and-dangerous-illusion-human-control?check_logged_in=1&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=lo_flows&utm_campaign=article_link&utm_term=article_email&utm_content=20250220
  20. Nowotny, H. (2021). In AI We Trust: Power, Illusion and Control of Predictive Algorithms. Wiley. 
  21. Sivanathan, N., Pillutla, M. M., & Murnighan, J. K. (2008). Power gained, power lost.Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,105(2), 135-146.
  22. Thompson, S. C., & Armstrong, W. (1998). Illusions of control, underestimation, and accuracy: A control heuristic explanation. Psychological Bulletin, 123(2), 143-161.
  23. Vasbinder, J., van der Leeuw, S., & Galaz, V. (2024). The Illusion of Control. Global Perspectives (2024) 5 (1): 95001.
  24. Hein, T. (2019, November 8). The Illusion of Control in eCommerce. Ryte Magazine. https://en.ryte.com/magazine/illusion-of-control-in-ecommerce/
  25. Ouyang, P-C. (2019, February 27). The Need for Control - What We Can Learn From Placebo Button. IXD@Pratt. https://ixd.prattsi.org/2019/02/the-need-for-control-what-we-can-learn-from-placebo-button/
  26. Langer EJ, Roth J. Heads I win, tails it's chance: the illusion of control as a function of the sequence of outcomes in a purely chance task. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1975;32:951–5.
  27. Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32(2), 311–328.

About the Authors

A man in a blue, striped shirt smiles while standing indoors, surrounded by green plants and modern office decor.

Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

A smiling man stands in an office, wearing a dark blazer and black shirt, with plants and glass-walled rooms in the background.

Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Dr. Sekoul Krastev is a decision scientist and Co-Founder of The Decision Lab, one of the world's leading behavioral science consultancies. His team works with large organizations—Fortune 500 companies, governments, foundations and supernationals—to apply behavioral science and decision theory for social good. He holds a PhD in neuroscience from McGill University and is currently a visiting scholar at NYU. His work has been featured in academic journals as well as in The New York Times, Forbes, and Bloomberg. He is also the author of Intention (Wiley, 2024), a bestselling book on the science of human agency. Before founding The Decision Lab, he worked at the Boston Consulting Group and Google.

About us

We are the leading applied research & innovation consultancy

Our insights are leveraged by the most ambitious organizations

Image

“

I was blown away with their application and translation of behavioral science into practice. They took a very complex ecosystem and created a series of interventions using an innovative mix of the latest research and creative client co-creation. I was so impressed at the final product they created, which was hugely comprehensive despite the large scope of the client being of the world's most far-reaching and best known consumer brands. I'm excited to see what we can create together in the future.

Heather McKee

BEHAVIORAL SCIENTIST

GLOBAL COFFEEHOUSE CHAIN PROJECT

OUR CLIENT SUCCESS

$0M

Annual Revenue Increase

By launching a behavioral science practice at the core of the organization, we helped one of the largest insurers in North America realize $30M increase in annual revenue.

0%

Increase in Monthly Users

By redesigning North America's first national digital platform for mental health, we achieved a 52% lift in monthly users and an 83% improvement on clinical assessment.

0%

Reduction In Design Time

By designing a new process and getting buy-in from the C-Suite team, we helped one of the largest smartphone manufacturers in the world reduce software design time by 75%.

0%

Reduction in Client Drop-Off

By implementing targeted nudges based on proactive interventions, we reduced drop-off rates for 450,000 clients belonging to USA's oldest debt consolidation organizations by 46%

Let's chat

Read Next

Halo Effect

Why do positive impressions produced in one area positively influence our opinions in another area?

Why do positive impressions produced in one area positively influence our opinions in another area?

Learn More

Representativeness Heuristic

Why do we use similarity to gauge statistical probability?

Why do we use similarity to gauge statistical probability?

Learn More

Social Norms

Why do we follow the behavior of others?

Why do we follow the behavior of others?

Learn More
See All
Notes illustration

Eager to learn about how behavioral science can help your organization?

Contact us