Why do we think some things are related when they aren’t?
Illusory Correlation
, explained.What is illusory correlation?
Illusory correlation, also known as illusory correlation bias, is the tendency to perceive a relationship between two variables when none actually exists. This cognitive bias often arises because the association aligns with our expectations or is amplified by the distinctiveness of certain events, making them more memorable and salient in our minds.
Where illusory correlation is seen
Consider the following hypothetical situation: Jane is an avid football fan and watches every game that her beloved “Guardians” play on live television. Jane always wears her tattered Guardians jersey while watching their games— the same one she has worn for years.
According to Jane, it is vital that she wear her “lucky jersey.” The success of her team depends on it. A few years earlier, Jane had noticed that when she didn’t wear her jersey, the Guardians lost. This phenomenon happened a few times before Jane’s superstitions were solidified. Now, she is certain: the success of her favorite football team is in some way related to her wearing this jersey.
Jane’s false perception that wearing her jersey at home is directly related to the performance of her favorite football team can be attributed to an illusory correlation.
Illusory correlation is a cognitive bias that is closely linked to memory and perception, as people tend to notice and remember patterns or associations that confirm their expectations or stand out in some way. Sometimes, our decisions hinge on the relationship between various phenomena—for example, when I do “Y,” I know “X” will occur. We see that certain events consistently occur at the same time as, or just after, other events, leading us to conclude that they are somehow related. We may not know why they are related, but we have enough evidence to suggest that their occurrence is linked.
Mis- and disinformation can also exacerbate illusory correlations and lead to their widespread acceptance. If the public learns about a flawed correlation between two events or factors from an individual with authority, they are more likely to accept it as truth. In 2006, J. D. Hayworth, one of America’s most outspoken Congressmen, published a book called Whatever it Takes: Illegal Immigration, Border Security, and the War on Terror, in which he claimed that inflows of people over the U.S.-Mexico border posed a “terrorist threat.” Juxtaposing undocumented immigration with terrorism produces an illusory correlation because the majority of migrants entering the U.S. from the South are people in search of better career opportunities, not terrorists with ulterior motives.18
We can’t always know if and why two things are causally related. Sometimes, it’s enough to know that they are somehow related. If we see this relationship occur many times, we become confident that the correlation will reliably recur in the future.