Why do we mispredict how much our emotions influence our behavior?

The 

Empathy Gap

, explained.
Bias

What is the Empathy Gap?

The empathy gap describes our tendency to underestimate the influence of varying mental states on our own behavior and make decisions that only satisfy our current emotion, feeling, or state of being.

The image illustrates the "Empathy Gap" with a graph. The vertical axis reads "How Much I Want Healthy Food," and the horizontal axis reads "How Hungry I Am." A downward sloping line moves from a labeled area "Hypothetical Health" in orange on the left to "Actual Un-Health" in red on the right, showing how the desire for healthy food declines as hunger increases.

Where this bias occurs

The empathy gap is also sometimes referred to as the hot-cold empathy gap. This is a reference to two kinds of visceral (internal, bodily) states. ‘Hot’ visceral states are when our mental state is influenced by hunger, sexual desire, fear, exhaustion, or other strong emotions. A ‘cold’ mental state is one that is not being influenced by emotion and is usually more rational and logical.1 When we are in either a hot or cold mental state, we fail to acknowledge the temporary nature of that state and are unable to put ourselves in the mindset of others. In other words, we tend to overestimate how rational we’ll be when we’re calm, or assume we’ll always feel as intensely as we do when we're emotional.

For example, imagine you are asked how you would respond in a situation where an unconscious person is in need of help. Since you are currently not in that intense situation, you might have a very rational response, such as claiming that you would perform CPR. You predict a logical response because you are currently in a “cold” state of mind. However, if you found yourself in that situation, fear and anxiety might cause you to behave very differently. You would be in a hot mental state, and powerful emotions may influence how you behave. This situation demonstrates the empathy gap, where we are unable to correctly predict how we will behave because we make our predictions based on current emotional states.

The difficulties we have in evaluating the influence of feelings, emotions, and other visceral states on our emotional perspective-taking have been referred to as the ‘dual judgement model.’ As psychologists and social scientists Leaf Van Boven, George Loewenstein, David Dunning, and Loran Nordgren note, it stands to reason that if we struggle to empathize with our own future selves, we will also find it difficult to empathize with other people’s emotions5

“Given that people exhibit empathy gaps when estimating their own reactions to different emotional situations, the dual judgment model implies that they will exhibit corresponding empathy gaps when estimating others’ reactions to different emotional situations.”

While the empathy gap often has to do with a lack of empathy for ourselves, it can also describe our inability to understand other people’s perspectives or actions if they are not in the same visceral state as we are.

Empathy gaps, therefore, are not all the same. They can be broadly categorized based on their connection to time (past or future) and whether they occur within an individual (intrapersonal) or between individuals (interpersonal): 

  • Intrapersonal Prospective Empathy Gap: This occurs when we struggle to predict our own future behavior when in a different emotional or physical state. For example, a smoker who feels relaxed after a cigarette might assume that quitting in the future will be easy. Similarly, someone experiencing deep grief may find it impossible to imagine ever feeling happiness again.
  • Intrapersonal Retrospective Empathy Gap: This happens when we struggle to recall or understand our past behavior because we are no longer in the same emotional or physical state. A common example is feeling a state of calm after an argument with someone and being unable to comprehend why we previously lost our temper.
  • Interpersonal Empathy Gap: This refers to the difficulty of understanding another person’s feelings or behavior when they are in a different state from our own. For instance, a well-rested person may struggle to understand the exhaustion and frustration of a sleep-deprived parent caring for a crying baby.

Sources

  1. Newman, S. (2016, February 8). Understanding and Mastering the Empathy Gap. Psychology Today. https://www.psychologytoday.com/ca/blog/singletons/201602/understanding-and-mastering-the-empathy-gap
  2. The Empathy Gap: Why People Fail to Understand Different Perspectives. (n.d.). Effectiviology – Psychology and philosophy you can use. Retrieved October 1, 2020, from https://effectiviology.com/empathy-gap/#Types_of_empathy_gaps
  3. Loewenstein, G., O'Donoghue, T., & Rabin, M. (2003). Projection bias in predicting future utility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1209-1248. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355303322552784
  4. Loewenstein, G. (2005). Hot-cold empathy gaps and medical decision making. Health Psychology, 24(4), S49-S56. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.24.4.s49
  5. Van Boven, L., Loewenstein, G., Dunning, D., & Nordgren, L. (2013). Changing Places: A Dual Judgment Model of Empathy Gaps In Emotional Perspective Taking. Advances in Experimental Psychology, Volume 48. 
  6. Gutsell, J. N., & Inzlicht, M. (2012). Intergroup differences in the sharing of emotive states: neural evidence of an empathy gap. Soc Cogn Affect Neurosci, 7(5), 596-603. 
  7. Stephens, J., Neal, D., & Overman, A. (2014). Closing the empathy gap in college students’ judgments of end-of-life tradeoffs. International Journal of Psychology, 49(4), 313-317. 
  8. Kurian, N. (2024). ‘No, Alexa, no!’: designing child-safe AI and protecting children from the risks of the ‘empathy gap’ in large language models. Learning, Media and Technology, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/17439884.2024.2367052
  9. BBC. (2021, December 28). Alexa tells 10-year-old girl to touch live plug with penny. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-59810383
  10. Cambridge University. (2024, July 15). AI Chatbots have shown they have an ‘empathy gap’ that children are likely to miss. University of Cambridge. https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/ai-chatbots-have-shown-they-have-an-empathy-gap-that-children-are-likely-to-miss
  11. Ipsos & Effie UK. (2023). The Empathy Gap and How to Bridge it. Dynamic Effectiveness: Ipsos & Effie UK, vol. 2.  https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2023-12/Ipsos_Effie_The%20Empathy%20Gap_December2023.pdf
  12. PwC. (n.d.). Experience is everything. Get it right. PwC. https://www.pwc.com/us/en/services/consulting/library/consumer-intelligence-series/future-of-customer-experience.html
  13. Salesforce Canada. (2023, April 10). How to Close the Digital Empathy Gap and Build Customer Loyalty. Salesforce Blog. https://www.salesforce.com/ca/blog/how-to-close-the-digital-empathy-gap-and-build-customer-loyalty/
  14. Batson, C. D. (2009-03-20). "These Things Called Empathy: Eight Related but Distinct Phenomena". In Decety, J.; Ickes, William (eds.). The Social Neuroscience of Empathy. The MIT Press. pp. 3–16. 
  15. Fletcher-Watson, S., McConnell, F., Manola, E., & McConachie, H. (2014). Interventions based on the Theory of Mind cognitive model for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The Cochrane database of systematic reviews, 2014(3), CD008785. https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD008785.pub2

About the Authors

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Dan Pilat

Dan is a Co-Founder and Managing Director at The Decision Lab. He is a bestselling author of Intention - a book he wrote with Wiley on the mindful application of behavioral science in organizations. Dan has a background in organizational decision making, with a BComm in Decision & Information Systems from McGill University. He has worked on enterprise-level behavioral architecture at TD Securities and BMO Capital Markets, where he advised management on the implementation of systems processing billions of dollars per week. Driven by an appetite for the latest in technology, Dan created a course on business intelligence and lectured at McGill University, and has applied behavioral science to topics such as augmented and virtual reality.

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Dr. Sekoul Krastev

Dr. Sekoul Krastev is a decision scientist and Co-Founder of The Decision Lab, one of the world's leading behavioral science consultancies. His team works with large organizations—Fortune 500 companies, governments, foundations and supernationals—to apply behavioral science and decision theory for social good. He holds a PhD in neuroscience from McGill University and is currently a visiting scholar at NYU. His work has been featured in academic journals as well as in The New York Times, Forbes, and Bloomberg. He is also the author of Intention (Wiley, 2024), a bestselling book on the science of human agency. Before founding The Decision Lab, he worked at the Boston Consulting Group and Google.

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